SEC 10-Q Carrier Disclosures Predict Consumer Rate Movements (2026)

SEC 10-Q Carrier Disclosures Predict Consumer Rate Movements (2026)

Every quarter, the largest public insurance carriers in the United States file detailed financial disclosures with the SEC. These filings — principally the 10-Q (quarterly) and 10-K (annual) — contain the loss ratios, combined ratios, segment-level earned premiums, and Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) sections that reveal, often explicitly, whether the carrier is planning rate increases in the coming months.

This is the upstream signal to the DOI filing indicator. By the time a carrier submits a rate-change request to a state Department of Insurance, the financial pressure driving that request has already been visible in two or three quarters of public SEC filings. For consumers, that means the window to act — to shop before the increases hit — is often six months or more after a carrier’s loss-ratio deterioration becomes observable in its 10-Q.

The Rate Authority ledger tracks 14 publicly traded carriers across 52 quarterly and annual records (2025 Q2 through 2026 Q1, plus Allstate annual series back to 2022). The data are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings via our carrier-specific scrapers.

The mechanism

The structural chain runs:

1. Claims environment worsens. A bad storm season, a used-car-price spike, litigation inflation, or reinsurance repricing causes claims costs to rise faster than premiums collected.
2. Loss ratio runs hot. The carrier’s quarterly 10-Q discloses a loss ratio above 90% — sometimes above 100% — in the affected segment. This is fully public within ~40 days of quarter-end.
3. Internal actuarial review. The carrier’s actuaries determine the required rate adjustment to return the book to target loss ratio. This takes one to two quarters.
4. DOI filing. The carrier submits rate-change requests to affected state DOIs. These filings are public immediately.
5. Rate-effective date. After regulatory review (3–6 months in prior-approval states; 4–8 weeks in file-and-use states), consumers see new rates at renewal.

The total lead time from a hot 10-Q to consumer-facing rate increases is typically 2–4 quarters, or roughly 6–12 months. That is the window in which comparison shopping is most valuable.

The carriers we track

The Rate Authority ledger currently includes SEC EDGAR data for the following 14 publicly traded personal-lines and commercial-lines insurers:

Premiums shown are from the monthly_premium field in our ledger, which represents quarterly earned premium in millions of dollars as reported in the carrier’s most recent available SEC filing (Q1 2026 where available; FY2025 annual for carriers with annual-only ingestion). BRK-A (Berkshire Hathaway / GEICO, CIK 0001067983) is tracked editorially but its personal-lines segment data is embedded within Berkshire’s consolidated filing in a form that requires manual extraction; a dedicated ingest pipeline is on the roadmap.

Three filing types to watch

10-Q (quarterly)

Filed approximately 40 days after each quarter-end (May for Q1, August for Q2, November for Q3). The 10-Q is the primary source for:

• Loss and LAE ratio by segment. Personal auto, personal home, and commercial are typically broken out. A loss ratio above 90% in personal auto is the clearest single signal that rate-up filings are coming.
• Combined ratio. Loss ratio + expense ratio. A combined ratio above 100% means the carrier is paying out more in claims and expenses than it collects in premiums — an unsustainable position that will resolve via rate increases, underwriting tightening, or market exit.
• Net premiums written vs. earned. Growth in written versus earned premiums indicates a carrier is actively growing the book — or shrinking it in response to loss pressure.
• MD&A forward guidance. The Management Discussion and Analysis section often contains explicit language about rate-action plans: “We plan to seek rate increases averaging X% across our personal auto book in 2026” is common phrasing.

10-K (annual)

Filed February or March following the fiscal year-end. The 10-K provides:

• Full-year loss ratios, enabling year-over-year trend analysis.
• Segment-level detail by geography in some cases — Progressive and Allstate, for example, break out state-level direct premiums written in 10-K exhibits.
• Actuarial reserve development tables, which reveal whether prior-year reserves were adequate or whether adverse development is silently inflating the effective loss ratio.

8-K (current event)

Filed within four business days of a material event. Two item numbers are most relevant for rate-change prediction:

• Item 8.01 (Other Events): Carriers sometimes use this item to announce rate-action plans, market exits, or underwriting guideline changes before the quarterly 10-Q captures the financial impact.
• Item 2.06 (Material Impairments): Used to disclose large catastrophe loss events. A carrier disclosing $500M+ in catastrophe losses via an 8-K item 2.06 is telling you that its upcoming 10-Q will show loss-ratio deterioration — and that rate-up DOI filings in affected states will follow within one to two quarters.

Loss ratio thresholds and what they predict

The loss ratio (claims paid + loss adjustment expense divided by earned premiums) is the core signal:

These are general thresholds. Each carrier has a target combined ratio embedded in its investor guidance; Travelers targets ~95%, Progressive has historically targeted a 96% combined ratio as its profit cap. A carrier running at 92% against a 90% target is under less pressure than a carrier running 92% against an 85% target.

Worked example: Allstate 2022–2025

Allstate’s personal auto trajectory is the most visible recent example of the full 10-Q-to-consumer-rate sequence.

In 2022, Allstate’s personal auto loss ratio spiked above 100% — the combination of post-pandemic used-car price inflation (driving up comprehensive claim costs), supply-chain delays increasing repair times and severity, and pandemic-era drivers returning to roads. The Q3 and Q4 2022 10-Qs were explicit: Allstate disclosed a combined ratio for personal auto above 110% and committed publicly to aggressive rate-taking.

The rate filings followed in 2023 across virtually every state where Allstate writes personal auto — prior-approval and file-and-use alike. Consumer rates moved significantly in 2023 and 2024. By 2024, Allstate’s annual direct premiums written had recovered to $19,436M (FY2024 per our EDGAR series), up from $17,505M in FY2023 and $15,912M in FY2022 — the premium growth reflecting both rate increases and, eventually, volume recovery as the improved loss ratio made the book attractive again. By FY2025, Allstate’s annual premiums reached $20,483M.

A consumer who had read Allstate’s Q3 2022 10-Q — publicly available in November 2022 — would have had 6–12 months of advance notice that Allstate personal auto rates were going up everywhere. The rational action at that point was to comparison-shop immediately, before competitors followed with their own filings.

Worked example: Progressive Snapshot and the 2024 rate-decrease filings

Progressive’s telematics program (Snapshot) allows the carrier to charge usage- and behavior-based rates that more accurately price individual risk. When Snapshot data showed improving loss ratios in its direct channel — reflecting that high-risk drivers were being priced out and low-risk drivers were being retained — Progressive’s combined ratio improved through 2023 into 2024.

Progressive’s Q1 2026 earned premium in our ledger is $6,989M, up sequentially from $6,770M in Q2 2025, $6,950M in Q3 2025, and $27,220M for FY2025 (full-year). That FY2025 figure represents roughly 56% growth over a three-year period, much of it driven by the improved loss ratio allowing Progressive to compete aggressively on price in states where competitors were still digesting 2022–2023 loss deterioration.

The mechanism runs in reverse for favorable indicators: when a carrier’s 10-Q shows a loss ratio significantly below target for multiple consecutive quarters, the pressure to file rate decreases — or at minimum to hold rates flat while competitors catch up on their own filings — becomes visible before consumers see it. Progressive’s rate-decrease filings in select states during 2024 were preceded by quarters of favorable 10-Q disclosures.

Worked example: Hurricane Helene and 8-K item 2.06 disclosures

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida in late September 2024 and tracked inland, causing catastrophic flooding across the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Georgia — an unusual inland catastrophe event. Within days of landfall, multiple carriers filed 8-K item 2.06 disclosures:

• Travelers (TRV): Disclosed estimated pre-tax catastrophe losses of approximately $1.7 billion for Q3 2024, substantially above consensus estimates. The Q3 2024 10-Q confirmed a combined ratio above 100% for the quarter. Travelers’ Q1 2026 earned premium in our ledger is $3,535M, roughly flat versus prior quarters — consistent with a carrier managing growth discipline in cat-exposed states while working through the post-Helene reserve cycle.
• Chubb (CB): Disclosed material catastrophe losses for Q3 2024 via 8-K. Q1 2026 earned premium in our ledger is $4,486M, down from $4,786M in Q3 2025 — a sequential decline that may reflect underwriting tightening in cat-exposed personal and commercial lines.
• Allstate (ALL): Also disclosed Q3 2024 cat losses, though Allstate’s geographic mix (heavier Southeast exposure than Travelers) made the impact more concentrated in personal home lines.

The practical implication for consumers: when you see a carrier 8-K item 2.06 filing for a storm that affected your state, the next 1–2 quarterly 10-Qs will confirm the loss-ratio impact, and DOI rate-up filings in that state from that carrier are likely within two quarters of the event. You have approximately 3–6 months to act.

Our ledger: Q2 2025 through Q1 2026

The SEC EDGAR series in our ledger represents quarterly earned premium in millions of dollars for each carrier. Selected Q1 2026 data points (for carriers with Q1 2026 data ingested):

Kemper (KMPR) shows the most notable sequential movement: Q3 2025 earned premium of $378M declining to $333M in Q1 2026, a roughly 12% sequential contraction. This is consistent with Kemper’s ongoing repositioning of its personal auto book — the company has been contracting in states where it cannot achieve adequate rates — a trend that was visible in earlier 10-Q disclosures. Consumers with Kemper policies in affected states should cross-reference their state’s DOI docket for non-renewal notices, which are a related but distinct filing type.

Note on methodology: the monthly_premium field in our ledger captures the as-reported quarterly segment figure for most carriers; FY2025 annual figures (appearing at the December 31 effective date) represent the 10-K reported direct premiums written and are not directly comparable to quarterly figures. All values are in millions of US dollars.

Honest caveats

10-Qs report carrier-aggregate, not state-specific. A carrier with a 95% combined ratio in its personal auto segment nationally may have a 105% ratio in one state and 82% in another. The aggregate signal tells you which direction to look; the state-specific signal requires cross-referencing with DOI filings. See our DOI filings deep dive for the state-level layer.

A hot loss ratio in commercial does not predict personal lines. Carriers with large commercial books — Chubb, AIG, Travelers — can have significant commercial loss volatility that does not propagate to personal auto or home. Read the segment disclosures carefully. We maintain separate tracking by product line in the ledger where the carrier reports it.

Reinsurance recoverables muddy gross versus net. A carrier with heavy cat exposure will show a gross loss ratio that deteriorates significantly in a storm year; the net loss ratio (after reinsurance recoveries) is what actually drives their rate-filing decisions. Some carriers report both gross and net; some report only net. Where only net is available, the signal is still useful, but the reinsurance structure affects the magnitude of the pass-through to consumers. This is one reason reinsurance treaty pricing is its own indicator category in the framework.

Earnings guidance beats loss ratios as a magnitude signal. When a carrier’s CFO says explicitly in an earnings call (which follows within days of each 10-Q filing) that “we expect to achieve rate increases averaging X% in 2026,” that MD&A language is more precise than the loss-ratio signal alone. We flag explicit rate-guidance language in our ledger notes where it appears in the filing text.

Filing lag varies by carrier size. Large accelerated filers (Allstate, Progressive, Travelers) must file 10-Qs within 40 days of quarter-end. Smaller accelerated filers get 45 days. Non-accelerated filers get 45 days. The difference is small, but it means the same quarter-end produces filings arriving over a 5-day window in practice.

How to use this signal

If you are shopping auto or home insurance right now: Check the most recent 10-Q for your incumbent carrier. The SEC EDGAR full-text search at efts.sec.gov allows you to search for any carrier’s most recent filings in under a minute. If your carrier’s personal auto or home loss ratio is above 90% — look for language like “loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 94.3%” in the MD&A — plan to shop at or before your next renewal. If the loss ratio is above 100%, the rate increases are coming regardless of how long you have been a customer.

If you are a journalist or analyst: The quarterly earnings cycle — roughly mid-February (Q4/annual), mid-May (Q1), mid-August (Q2), mid-November (Q3) — is the publication schedule for the forward-looking signal. Building a monitoring workflow around those filing windows, cross-referenced against SERFF filing volume in the states where each carrier concentrates its book, is the most systematic approach to early detection of consumer-rate inflection points.

If you are monitoring for a specific state: Cross-reference the carrier-aggregate 10-Q signal with state-DOI filing activity. A carrier running a 97% combined ratio nationally, with a known concentration in your state and a filing appearing in that state’s SERFF docket, is a high-confidence signal. Either condition alone is directional; both together are closer to confirmatory.

Citation

Rate Authority. SEC 10-Q Carrier Disclosures Predict Consumer Rate Movements (2026). Available at https://rateauthority.org/indicators/sec-10q-carrier-disclosures/

The underlying carrier premium series referenced in this piece are available at /data/api/ under CC BY 4.0. Data sourced from SEC EDGAR via Rate Authority carrier-specific scrapers (source tags: sec_edgar_all, sec_edgar_pgr, sec_edgar_trv, sec_edgar_hig, sec_edgar_cb, sec_edgar_met, sec_edgar_lnc, sec_edgar_gl, sec_edgar_kmpr, sec_edgar_mcy, sec_edgar_eg, sec_edgar_aig, sec_edgar_cinf, sec_edgar_wrb).

See also: Insurance Price Leading Indicators — Framework · DOI Filings as a Leading Indicator · Data Dictionary · Methodology

Maintained by Rate Authority Editorial. Data: Rate Authority ledger (CC BY 4.0). Last updated: 2026-05-22.