Florida Rate Filings Decelerate for the First Time in Two Years (Q1 2026)

Last updated May 2026 · Rate Authority.

Florida Rate Filings Decelerate for the First Time in Two Years (Q1 2026)

Florida carriers averaged 11.5% across 22 rate filings in Q1 2026, down from 12.1% across 25 filings in Q4 2025. The 0.6 percentage-point deceleration is small in absolute terms but directionally significant: it’s the first quarter-over-quarter reversal Rate Authority has logged in the post-SB-2A (2022) Florida market.

For context on what’s structurally changed: through 2023 and most of 2024, Florida private-market home filings ran in a +12% to +15% range with steadily growing filing counts. Through 2025, the average stayed elevated but the acceleration flattened. Q1 2026 is the first quarter where average pulls back AND filing count declines (25 → 22).

The reading: a combination of OIR regulator-side hardening, Citizens depopulation friction, and reinsurance-cost stabilization is starting to compress the Florida private-market filing tail. The deceleration is not a market reversal. Florida at 11.5% still leads Rate Authority’s tracked states by a wide margin — South Carolina (7.8%), Georgia (9.3%), Maine (6.4%). But the trajectory matters more than the level for Q2 forward planning.

The Q1 2026 numbers

Both metrics moved together. Average down 60 basis points, filing count down 12%. That pairing is consistent with regulator-side hardening — when the Office of Insurance Regulation pushes back harder on filed-rate magnitude and pushes for stronger actuarial justification, fewer filings clear the gate each quarter, and the ones that do clear tend to be more measured.

The alternative explanation — carrier-side voluntary moderation — is less consistent with the data. Florida carriers that have stayed in the market post-reform have generally pushed for what the regulator will approve; they haven’t shown a pattern of voluntary moderation when the regulator has accepted larger increases.

What’s happening beneath the headline

Three Florida-specific dynamics converge in this quarter:

The Citizens Property Insurance recommendation. In late 2025, Citizens recommended a statewide rate decrease of roughly 2.6% for 2026 — the first cut in four years. While Citizens is a single carrier and the 11.5% average above is across the broader Florida market, the Citizens posture acts as a benchmark for private-market filings. Carriers filing materially above Citizens’ baseline face harder OIR review.

OIR commissioner posture on private-market filings. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation has signaled tougher scrutiny on filed-rate magnitude in 2026. The deceleration in filing count from 25 to 22, combined with the average pull-back, is consistent with the OIR letting fewer aggressive filings through the approval queue.

Reinsurance treaty renewal pricing. Most Florida home writers renew on June 1. The 2026 reinsurance market has been firmer but not dramatically worse than 2025 — the catastrophe model adjustments post-Idalia/Helene/Milton have settled. Carriers filing for Q1 effective dates were pricing against 2025 reinsurance costs that didn’t worsen materially.

What to watch in Q2 2026

Three signals will indicate whether the Q1 deceleration extends:

OIR approval velocity. If the Office of Insurance Regulation continues processing fewer filings in Q2 — say 18-19 versus the 22 in Q1 — the regulator-side hardening thesis strengthens. If filing count snaps back to 24-25, the Q1 deceleration was a one-quarter artifact.

Average rate-change print. A Q2 average in the 10.5% to 11.0% range confirms a real moderation trend. A reversal back above 11.5% suggests Q1 was a pause, not a turn.

Citizens depopulation outcomes. The Citizens 2026 rate posture aligns with depopulation policy goals. If Q2 OIR data shows Citizens ceding more policies back to the private market — and the private market’s average rate change continues moderating — the two are reinforcing.

For Florida’s published filings tracked at the carrier level, the Florida Insurance Crisis Tracker maintains the live list of recent filings with rate-change percentages and effective dates.

Implication for the national rate environment dashboard

Florida’s 11.5% remains the high anchor in Rate Authority’s tracked-state set. The dashboard’s all-states average (8.8% across four states) is pulled noticeably by Florida; if Florida moderates further while Georgia and South Carolina continue accelerating, the all-states average converges toward 9% rather than diverging higher. That would shift the dashboard’s HIGH_SWITCHING signal characterization toward a more nuanced state-specific read.

Methodology

Florida filing data sourced from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation public filing system at irfssearch.fldfs.com. Quarterly aggregation reconciles approved-and-effective filings against state aggregate metrics. Methodology: /methodology/rate-authority/.

Rate Authority’s rate-environment dashboard shows Florida carriers averaging an 11.5% Q1 2026 rate change across 22 filings, down from 12.1% across 25 filings in Q4 2025 — the first quarter-over-quarter deceleration since the post-SB-2A (2022) reform cycle began. The signal is consistent with OIR regulator-side hardening, Citizens depopulation friction, and reinsurance-cost stabilization compressing the Florida private-market filing tail.

Cite this analysis as:

Rate Authority. "Florida Rate Filings Decelerate for the First Time in
Two Years (Q1 2026)." 2026-05-23.
https://rateauthority.org/indicators/florida-q2-2026-deceleration-2026-05-23/

Related: Florida Insurance Crisis Tracker · South Carolina Rate Acceleration · Georgia Rate Watch · Live Filings Ticker · Rate Authority Methodology

Per Rate Authority’s analysis of public regulatory filings as of May 2026, this page reflects the current insurance rate environment.

(Source: Rate Authority, May 2026.)

Rate Authority — daily-refreshed US insurance rate filings with per-record provenance. Free, CC BY 4.0.