Indicators + Crisis Trackers — Rate Authority
Indicators + Crisis Trackers
Daily filings + editorial context for state-specific insurance crises, plus the leading-indicator research methodology that predicts US insurance price movements.
State crisis trackers
Auto-refreshed daily — each tracker pulls the latest carrier filings for its state from the Rate Authority ledger.
- California Wildfire Insurance Tracker (2026) California home insurance crisis tracker — non-renewal filings, AB-2901 fallout, FAIR Plan growth, and per-carrier rate filings. Updated daily.
- Florida Insurance Market Tracker (2026) Florida home + auto insurance market analysis — public carrier disclosures from SEC EDGAR, NAIC published market data, and the post-SB-2A regulatory landscape. Verified public-source coverage; not a comprehensive filings ledger.
- Texas Auto Insurance Reform Tracker (2026) Texas auto insurance reform tracker — HB-19 fallout, carrier filings, and the frequency-severity divergence post-reform. Updated daily.
Leading-indicator research
- Cincinnati Financial (CINF) 8-K, May 2026: Combined Ratio 95.6% with $73M Catastrophe Load Confidence tier: directional only
- Citizens Property Insurance Corporation Files +14.2% Home Rate Increase in Florida (FL-2026-HOME-00150) Confidence tier: directional only
- Maine Auto Insurance Rate Filings Accelerated to 6.4% Average in 2026-Q1, Up 1.3pp QoQ Confidence tier: directional only
- PPI Motor-Vehicle Parts +3.2% YoY vs. CPI Auto-Insurance +0.9% YoY: A 2.3pp Gap That Historically Precedes Filed-Rate Moves (April 2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- South Carolina Auto Insurance: 7.8% Average Filed Rate Change in 2026-Q1, Up 1.6pp From Prior Quarter Confidence tier: directional only
- California Wildfire Hotspots Hit 62 in 24 Hours (2026-05-25) — Above the 50-Hotspot Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida Wildfire Hotspots Hit 59 in 24 Hours (2026-05-25) — Nearly Double the Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida 2026-W22: 59 Active Wildfire Hotspots and a +14.2% Citizens Filing Fire Concurrently Confidence tier: directional only
- New Mexico Wildfire Hotspots Hit 363 in 24 Hours (2026-05-25) — 14× the Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Texas Wildfire Hotspots: 343 Active Detections in 24 Hours (2026-05-25) — 6.9× the Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- California Wildfire Hotspots: 62 Active Detections on 2026-05-26, Above the 50-Hotspot Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida Wildfire Hotspots Hit 44 in 24 Hours (2026-05-26) — Above the 30-Hotspot Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- New Mexico Wildfire Hotspots: 151 Detected in 24 Hours (2026-05-26) — 6× the Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Texas Wildfire Hotspots: 327 Detected in 24 Hours (2026-05-26) — 6× the Noteworthy-Day Threshold Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida 2026-W22: 3 Concurrent Signals — Wildfire Hotspots Breach Threshold, Citizens Files +14.2% Confidence tier: directional only
- Auto Insurance CPI Pre-Registration: >5% YoY by October 2026 at P=0.74 Confidence tier: directional only
- Auto Insurance Liability Limits in 2026: The Net-Worth Argument for Going Higher Than State Minimum Confidence tier: directional only
- California Motorcycle Insurance in 2026: Requirements, Coverage Tiers, and Pricing Drivers Confidence tier: directional only
- Carrier Q2 2026 Ad-Spend Disclosure Watch — Five Big-Five Top Lines Tracked Confidence tier: directional only
- Construction Labor Wages Lead Home Rebuild Costs by Two Years — A Novel Lead-Time Finding (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- CPI Food at Home Leads Renters Insurance by 6 Months — A Pre-Registered Test (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- The 12-Month Lag From PPI Motor Vehicle Parts to Consumer Insurance Rates — A Pre-Registered Test (2026) Confidence tier: calibration validated
- CPI Used Cars Does NOT Lead Insurance Rates — A Publishable Null (2026) Confidence tier: kill log
- Cross-Signal Correlation Analysis: What Predicts US Consumer Insurance Rates (2026 Findings) Confidence tier: calibration validated
- DOI Filings as a Leading Indicator of State-Level Premium Increases (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida Rate Filings Decelerate for the First Time in Two Years (Q1 2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Florida's Roof Matching Law: What Insurers Must Pay After a Partial Roof Claim (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Georgia Insurance Rate Filings on Pace to Cross 10% (Q1 2026 Status + Q2 Watch) Confidence tier: directional only
- Insurance Bad-Faith Claims: How State Law Defines It and What Triggers Liability (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Insurance Claim Denied: A 30-Day Decision Framework (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Insurance Price Leading Indicators — A Framework (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Life Insurance for Smokers in 2026: Underwriting, Reclassification, and Strategy Confidence tier: directional only
- Life Insurance with a Criminal Record: Underwriting Reality in 2026 Confidence tier: directional only
- Manheim Used Vehicle Index → Auto Claim Severity → Rate Filings (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- MAX Q1 2026 Predictions Resolved: Both Miss — Brier-Grading the EVER → MAX Sector-Comparable Model Confidence tier: calibration validated
- Motorcycle Insurance in 2026: Coverage Structure, Pricing Logic, and State Mandates Confidence tier: directional only
- Motorcycle Insurance Cost by State: What Drives the Differences in 2026 Confidence tier: directional only
- NAIC Connector State Coverage Map — 13 States Tracked, California Notable Gap (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Comparación de Precios de Seguro de Auto por Estado en EE.UU. 2026 Confidence tier: directional only
- No-Medical-Exam Life Insurance in 2026: When the Tradeoff Makes Sense Confidence tier: directional only
- Progressive (PGR) Monthly Metrics — A Primer for Reading the Print (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- SEC 10-Q Carrier Disclosures Predict Consumer Rate Movements (2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Rate Authority 2026 Auto Insurance Cost Study: 50-State Median Premiums by Driver Profile Confidence tier: directional only
- South Carolina Insurance Rate Filings — Top Accelerator Among Tracked States (Q1 2026) Confidence tier: directional only
- Seguro de Auto en Estados Unidos 2026: Guía Completa para Hispanohablantes Confidence tier: directional only
- Term vs Whole Life Insurance in 2026: A Decision Framework Built on Cash Flow Math Confidence tier: directional only
- Umbrella Insurance in 2026: Coverage Structure, Pricing, and When You Need It Confidence tier: directional only
- How Much Umbrella Insurance Do You Need? A Decision Framework (2026) Confidence tier: directional only